The temperature in the WoW community is rising again, as we get further glimpses (or rather are flooded with pictures) from the world that is awaiting us.
Cataclysm is in alpha since a couple of days and the data miners are working night and day to keep anyone interested updated. To everyone else: close your eyes! Apparently the NDA flew out of the window, and maybe it’s a wise call from Blizzard. They need to get some buzz going, because frankly it’s felt rather dead for a while now.
This gives us a reason to speculate a bit further on when we should expect to line up for a nightly event to finally get our hands on the new release.
I don’t know why we’re so obsessed with this topic that we bring it up over and over again, but after all I think the release date affects our gameplay quite a bit. Once we know when it will happen we’ll start to plan the rest of our time in Wrath. How long should we keep raiding, when should I start to sell out the stuff I have in the bank, should I hurry up levelling an alt I want to have ready? Everything depends on the release date.
The February predictionWe did a bit of speculation once before here at the inn, in what turned out to become the most commented on post we’ve ever had: “
Cataclysm release date February 1st”. It was published in October 2009, and people still love to go there to write a triumphant “fail!” in the comment section.
Mind you, it wasn’t I, Larísa, who made this prediction, but my former bartender and co-host of the blog, and frankly I never quite agreed with his prophecy even as it was published. I believe it reflected his wishful thinking, since he was a non-raider and was growing pretty bored with the game, running out if content as early as last autumn. He couldn’t bare the thought of having yet another six months without any good new content for non-raiders.
Still I suppose I can’t entirely take away my hands from it. After all I was the senior editor and approved of the publishing, so I’m somewhat responsible for it going live. But on the other hand:- as all blog readers should be aware of - bloggers aren’t always right and we don’t claim to be either. We make guesses and speculate just like anyone else. And if I could predict the future perfectly well, I’d rather take a job as a stock broker than blog about WoW.
Anyway: for all of you who like to think about and discuss what release date we could expect, I’m putting up this rather lengthy post, so you can argue in a fresh spot rather than in the failed prediction from six months back in time. So feel free to move over to this thread if you like to keep talking!
As a food for thought I’ll give you a few observations:
1. From announcement to launch
The elapsed time from the announcement of TBC (October 2005) to the release of the game (January 2007) and between the announcement of WotLK (August 2007) and the release (November 2008) was exactly 15 months, in both cases.
Cataclysm was announced in August 2009. Following the pattern, the release will be in November 2010.
2. From Alpha to launchFor TBC they needed five months from the start of the friends-and family Alpha testing in August 2006 to the release in Januari 2007. For Wrath the Alpha testing began in April and the release was in November, which meant seven moths of waiting. The Alpha testing in Cataclysm started in the beginning of May. If you take the average of the previous two expansions – six months from Alpha to release - this indicates a release date in November 2010.
3. The Content nerf The pre-patch for TBC was released 1,5 months before the launch, including Christmans and New Year’s break. The pre-patch for Wrath was released 1 month in advance, without any major holidays interfering. The pre-patch for Wrath didn’t only include new builds and other sorts of adjustments – it also meant that they nerfed the raid content heavily – around 30 percent if I remember it correctly – thus making it possible for everyone to have a look at it before the expansion.
They’ve picked a slightly different approach to nerfing in Wrath with the ICC buff, increasing with 5 percent every four weeks. If they stick to this schedule ICC should be up to 30 percent – the equivalence to the 3.02 patch nerf in TBC – by the end of July. Giving the players one month to enjoy the maximum buff, this would suggest a release towards the end of August.
4. Ruby SanctumIn February they announced the upcoming 3.3.5 patch with the “extra” raid instance Ruby Sanctum. We haven’t heard a word about it since then, it’s not on the PTR and frankly I wouldn’t be overly surprised if they’d linger on releasing it until August, as something to use as a lure to get players back to WoW after the big Summer Exodus.
5. Blizzcon timingThen there is the timing of Blizzcon to think about. My innkeeper thought that Blizzard surely couldn’t have to nerve to announce Cataclysm at Blizzcon 2009 and then wait for over a year and let another Blizzcon pass before getting it out on the market. But actually I think they can. History shows us exactly this.
TBC was announced at Blizzcon 2005. There was no Blizzcon held in 2006 and then it was released in 2007. Wrath was announced at Blizzcon 2007. Then there was not only one but two Blizzcons arranged in 2008 – one in US and one in Europe. Neither of hem had Wrath as a major attraction. In US the Big News was about Diabolo. Blizzard could very well hold a Blizzcon in October with some other major piece of news than WoW. They have more games on their menu, remember?
However it seems highly unlikely that they would let the Cataclysm release coincide with Blizzcon. To get out as much publicity as possible of it they should do it either a few weeks before it or after it. And from a media point of view I would rather see the convention coming before the release, since it would be convenient for them to arrange media meet-ups, interviews and photo opportunities. I can’t see the point of doing that one month AFTER the release when Cataclysm is already “old news”.
6. “But Ghostcrawler promised…”It has been pointed out many times that Blizzard has stated that they have the ambition to increase the pace, getting out one new expansion a year. But what is that kind of statement worth, really? They’re also known – and respected – to not make premature releases of half-done games, but keep working on them until they’re up to the standard they should be at. I wouldn’t put too much emphasis on the one-year-goal when trying to predict the launch date.
People also have made a huge issue out of a few words uttered by Ghostcrawler at Blizzcon last year, where he said that we would be “complaining about goblin rogues” in the next Blizzcon. Seriously. I don’t think you can read anything into this. And regardless of if Cataclysm is released or not at that point, he’ll be right anyway. We’re having pretty intense discussions on mechanisms in Cataclysm already, based on the information that has been handed to us. We don’t need to have the game in our hands to talk about it.
7. We're bored and will quit!
The pace in the game is really slow now and has been for a while. It’s apparent that many players are cutting down on their WoW presence heavily or even taking a break in their subscriptions to check out other games.
Some players seem to think that Blizzard should be overly worried about this and therefore feel the urge to get out Cataclysm asap in order not to lose subscribers, but personally I doubt that they’re governed by the day-by-day statistics to that extent. After all the company seems to be doing fine financially, and if they would need some extra cash they could probably just toss another sparkling mount into the store.
Just because people are taking a break in their subscriptions it doesn’t mean that they’re done with WoW. I would be highly surprised if not the majority of those who quit now will come back for Cataclysm again, regardless of at which point during the autumn it will released.
Some final thoughtsI suppose I should end this post with a prediction of my own, so you can come back and mock me and call me a fail blogger if it turns out I’m wrong. It’s more fun that way, isn’t it? Even if there are a few observations above pointing to a release early in the autumn, I’m leaning towards a November release. The Christmas Factor can’t be neglected. So let’s say something…closing my eyes, pointing randomly in my calendar… November 17!
It sounds like a long wait, and no one would be happier than me if I turned out to be wrong. However, judging from
the gallery posted at MMO Champion today, (SPOILER LINK, look at your own risk) we really have a lot to look forward to!